# Prequential Statistics

Prequential statistics was proposed by A. Philip Dawid in his 1984 paper. The fundamental question of prequential statistics is: what does it mean for a forecasting system to be a good substitute for a statistical model? The fundamental question of prequential probability is: what does it mean for a forecasting system to perform well on a sequence of observations?

Perhaps the most important ingredient of prequential statistics is the prequential principle.

### Bibliography

- A. P. Dawid. Present position and potential developments: some personal views. Statistical theory. The prequential approach (with discussion).
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A*147:278 - 292, 1984. - A. P. Dawid. Calibration-based empirical probability (with discussion).
*Annals of Statistics*13:1251 - 1285, 1985. - A. P. Dawid. Fisherian inference in likelihood and prequential frames of reference (with discussion).
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B*53:79 - 109, 1991. - A. P. Dawid and V. G. Vovk. Prequential probability: Principles and properties.
*Bernoulli*5:125 - 162, 1999.